A new page opens in the history of the Catholic Church: the conclave begins that will choose the successor of Pope Francis. In the midst of internal tensions and a deeply polarized church, speculations are multiplied, with names of possible potatoes that represent unprecedented geographical diversity.
They are considered candidates of an American, three Italians, a Spaniard in Mission in Morocco, a Filipino, a French, a Congolese and even a Swedish of monastic roots. However, the most experienced observers warn: nobody really knows who will be the next pontiff.
From 4:30 p.m. local time, cardinals under 80 years – processes of almost two dozen without prior representation in conclaves – will be completely isolated to deliberate. Under the frescoes of Miguel Ángel, without interpreters or public speeches, the process will be marked by the secret vote, prayer and discreet conversations.
The possibility of a choice on the first day is low, since only an initial vote is held this day. But if the miracle of early consensus occurred, it could be a cardinal with great moral weight between its peers or someone whose intervention has deeply impacted on meetings prior to the conclave.
Although, in theory, any baptized man can be elected Pope, in practice the election will almost fall certainly among the cardinals present. The participation of 133 voters is expected, who are housed in the Domus Sanctae Marthae residence within the Vatican. The Sistine Chapel has been thoroughly reviewed to prevent any filtration and the windows have been sealed to guarantee the privacy of the process.
During the voting, the cardinals will sit on both sides of the chapel. Three of them will guard the polls where the ballots are deposited. To maintain anonymity, voters are instructed to hide their calligraphy. At the end of each vote, the ballots are burned next to chemical substances that generate smoke: black if there is no decision; White if the majority of two thirds required has been reached.
If a new Pope is not chosen in three days, the cardinals will be able to pause and discuss informally. If after 33 votes a majority is not achieved, the regulation allows a final vote between the two candidates with more support.
The last two pontiffs, Benedict XVI and Francisco, were chosen on the second day of voting, which generates expectations about a possible rapid resolution. However, the current situation is different: the Church faces internal divisions, debates about the future of celibacy, the role of women and LGBTQ+inclusion, in addition to the growing external pressure due to structural reforms.
Pope Francis leaves behind a reformist legacy that has expanded the geographical horizon of the Church. Throughout his 12 years of pontificate, he created 163 cardinals from almost 80 countries, many of them without prior representation at the Cardinal College. His vision included countries such as Haiti, Myanmar, Timor Eastern, Laos, Bangladesh, Lesoto and Sweden, reflecting an effort to decentralize ecclesiastical power.
Meanwhile, the looks of the world perch on the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, waiting for the moment when a column of white smoke announces the “Habemus Papam.” Until then, the only thing is that the future of the Church will depend not only on the name that is announced from the Balcony of San Pedro, but on the course that this new pontiff decides to take in times of global uncertainty.
