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The challenges of the Andalusian electoral hornet’s nest: a PP without Vox and a sunken left

The moment of truth has arrived for Pedro Sánchez, almost as much or more than for Juan Espadas, socialist candidate for the Andalusian elections. It is time to resort to first aid to minimize damage, that is, the famous “Resistance Manual” that shines on the frontispiece of Moncloa as a reminder that everything is possible for the bold, including succeeding in a motion of no confidence, not without a certain political madness. However, the resistance playbook becomes more urgent as the electoral storm brews.

As the wise say, every hour hurts, the last kills. The bells begin to ring and some dead to sweat, the polls announce that it can arrive the beginning of the end for the President of the Government and his galloping “sanchismo”, although he will sell his skin and his defeat dearly, in every way and with all the expletives that are necessary and one can imagine. It is true that there is still a lot to be done and a lot of games to play, even in the Andalusian campaign things can change, but even Tezanos’ forgery CIS predicts on June 19 a resounding -although not yet completely decided- fall of the socialism and its parallel extreme left.

Despite the forecasts, there are many doubts in the environment. How will the national situation affecting the country affect the polls in Andalusia? We are talking about the most populated region and with more electoral weight of Spain, which always greatly influences the behavior of future elections. Who will get the tasty cake from a decomposing party, such as Ciudadanos; or the pinch of the many undecided, for whom it will be; Or the bite of the 2018 abstention that was very high, and that the PSOE of Susana Díaz cost 400,000 fewer votes, and had to resign from the presidency of San Telmo, for the benefit of Moreno Bonilla?

In all Western countries where the free market prevails, the first thing voters do is analyze – before depositing their ballot – how their pocket is and how their purchasing power is doing. If this declines or enters an acute crisis, as is the current case, most tend to make a “horse” change, regardless of the reasons that cause the situation or inflation. Citizens do not remember much about the blunders of Pegasus, the dismissal of the director of the CNI, or if the Attorney General is a staunch militant of the PSOE and endangers the justice system or the Justice system, these things being very important they are not what determine the electoral future of a president. Above, far above is the economy, mistress and ruler of politics at all levels or orders; and the candidates -Núñez Feijóo, Sánchez, Juanma Moreno, Juan Espadas, etc.-, from whatever party they know and they try to turn data into miracles or in mirages impossible to believe.

But let’s see the main keys and flaws of the competitors in this special race through Andalusia. The winning horse seems guaranteed in advance: the leader of the PP will renew his victory without major problems. The fundamental thing for him is to know by how much, since his aspiration and full “happiness” would be to rule alone, and not carry the political “weight” of Vox. The likely key that would open up some peace of mind for Juanma Moreno would be to get more votes than all the leftist parties put together, something that could give him wings when demanding solo governance. However, everything indicates that Vox will achieve a good result and will force the PP to share the government to achieve an absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament. Interesting to see the tandem Moreno-Olona work; the quiet man arm in arm with the explosive lady on the right.

400,000 socialist votes lost

If this becomes a reality “marriage of convenience between the center-right and the extreme right, it would also be a warning to left-wing navigators, since it would palpably demonstrate how in a land that for 40 years has been a fiefdom of socialism it ends up supporting or accepting to a large extent and without so much fear to a party vilified by all like Vox. The trick of the arrival of the terrible far right does not seem to stop the good expectations of its leader, Macarena Olona. For Sánchez it will be a warning to take into account that the extreme right is being so accepted (even much more voted) than the extreme left, although this forces him to break his strategy for the general elections.

The glass ceiling that seems more made of steel for Juan Espadas is 33, the number of seats that Susana Díaz won in 2018 and that mark the red line so as not to sink the socialists more than necessary. Anything that goes up will be a point in favor for the former mayor of Seville, even if he does not manage to defeat the PP; but if he loses things will get tougher as Susana Diaz might be tempted to bill and claim your space. What the PSOE-A has to do is recover the 400,000 lost votes, something that seems almost impossible since the polls show no signs of recovery.

The bad policy of the last years of the socialist government, together with the great corruption of the ERE, and the fact that Moreno has been a calm president who has largely controlled the situation, mean that he can opt for the re-election with guarantees of success. The goal is the 55 seats of the majority, but he would be confirmed with reach the 49-50 that the most optimistic polls give you. The PP now has 26 seats and has governed with the help of Juan Marín and the 20 C’s, which this time will largely lose its success and will not exceed 2 or 3 seats. The possible remaining 18 C’s will go to Juanma Moreno who will achieve around 44-46, unless she improves her expectations by “stealing” votes from the disenchanted PSOE, and on the other hand a Vox who pulls hard in agricultural sectors and from the field. Abascal’s green party has made a big bet putting one of its heavyweights in Congress as a candidate. It will be necessary to see if it is fear or curiosity about Olona that arouses more interest, mobilizing the vote of the left or motivating it towards a PP so that he can govern alone.

Many want to see in the fall of Andalusian socialism the first torpedo on the waterline against “sanchismo”

Things for the extreme left do not seem to look good at all, in addition to being somewhat lost and with a serious lack of political drive. They began divided and ended up forming a first group, in a kind of difficult puzzle to fit together for a voter who will have a wide range of ballots and will not know very well who is who in each of them. The coalition “For Andalusia” includes IU, Podemos and Más Madrid, but the purple ones are theoretically out because they were late for registration. Opposite, as if there were not enough confusion, are those of “Adelante Andalucía” whose leader and candidate is Teresa Rodríguez, a circumstance that would not be criticized if she had not also been the leader of Podemos, thereby further increasing the confusion.. The results that are expected for some and for others are quite devastating.

Going back to Pedro Sánchez, these too are definitely your choices, not only because the regional ones are a thermometer of the general ones, but because they become a clear symptom of the future for governance; and Sanchez is the one bet and chose Swords as a candidate socialist. Let us remember a historical fact, the collapse of Zapatero began with the regional elections of May 2011, since then he no longer raised his head and lost with a crash in 2012. Many want to see the first torpedo in the waterline in the fall of Andalusian socialism against “sanchismo”, but we must not throw in the towel when we talk about a Pedro Sánchez capable of anything to stay in power. There are many battles to be fought and many ballot boxes to fill.