The President of the goverment has conspired to take advantage of the pull of the NATO summit and end the legislature in the best possible way with the two vice-presidents who are giving it the most strength in the European environment, Nadia Calvino and Teresa Ribera, despite the fact that relations between the two are not as fluid as might be expected. That is the slogan that has been spread around Moncloa for this summer to deal with the political scourge caused by the Andalusian elections and the blow of inflation, which has Economy and Ecological Transition the only two options so that the political and financial situation of the country does not fall apart more than desired in the last quarter of the year.
The key in the short term is to recover the political agenda after the coup in the Andalusian elections, which has strengthened the PP and has made all the electoral forecasts that are handled in the socialist environment give the winner to Nunez Feijoo if general elections are held before the end of the year, and even in the first half of 2023. In Ferraz they count on the Prime Minister lead the revulsive that is needed to stop the push of the PP, despite the clouds that lie in wait for the economy as of autumn. In the PSOE they lament that the management that has been carried out in the pandemic or in the face of the energy crisis is obscured at the end of the legislature by the blow that inflation and the rise in electricity in the pockets of individuals.
That is one of the reasons why Moncloa’s main bet with just a year and a half to go before the general elections, and with the regional and municipal elections involved, are Calviño and Ribera. On the one hand, both vice presidents endorse much of Sánchez’s management in the European Union, after a NATO summit that brought together the great leaders of the West in Madrid. Although it is a recourse to the “evil of many…”, the fight against inflation led by Nadia Calviño is a problem for the entire EU, which suffers increases even greater than the 10.2% that Spain has marked in the month of June . Calviño’s credibility in Brussels when seeking a joint medium-term solution is key to enduring the management that the Spanish Government has carried out so far, especially in the face of a rise in interest rates by the ECB that could do a lot of damage to the Spanish economy.
Calviño is also ultimately responsible for the Next Generation funds reaching Spain quickly and serving to curb the lack of investment that can be reached when interest rates and prices exhaust the financial capacity of companies and there is a high risk that the economy is stagnant and with inflation through the roof. Calviño is also the promoter of the digitization of companies, for which it is necessary to move quickly in the distribution of funds, curb bureaucracy and energize companies so that they take advantage of the money.
On the other hand, the strategists of the Presidency know that, despite everything, Spain is one of the mirrors in which other European countries look at themselves when carrying out their energy transition, if only because it is one of the that the renewable sector is more developed, at the cost of curbing coal and nuclear. The cap on gas from the Iberian Peninsulaalthough it has not served to lower the bill internally for compensation to electricity and gas companies, it is one of the options on the table to address the reform of the energy market at a community level, as has already been admitted by the Chairwoman Von der Leyen. When the summer passes and wind power gains strength in electricity generation again, the price reduction will be more noticeable than in these first weeks, in which I pay the companies for the massive use of the combined cycle and eat up any advantage.
Election deadline, December 10
The check that Maria Jesus Montero applies to the Treasury, including the new tax on electricity companies, and the support of Felix Bolanos as ‘CEO’ of Moncloa to put out the political and economic fires that arise, they allow us to endure this year and the next one even if sufficient support is not achieved for the State’s general budgets and an extension is required. From the socialist party itself they assure that, from now on, it is not even clear that United We Can support public accounts that bet on more investment in Defense and less fiscal pressure on companies and “the rich” than the one that the ‘purples’ intend.
With this scenario and in the absence of knowing if the president will carry out some type of government remodeling in other departments, the idea of exhausting the four years of the mandate and calling elections once the regional and municipal puzzle has been solved is gaining more and more consistency, with December 10 as the deadline for the polls. Sources familiar with this process assure that the Central Electoral Board has already warned the Government on several occasions of the legal impossibility of postponing the general elections beyond four years and one month since the last ones were held.
That premise would force the president to launch the call in the second half of October next year, in the middle of the semester of the European presidency. Although it is not the best of situations to launch the electoral campaign, the Executive is aware that the European commitment is an obstacle that can be overcome, whose management milestones would be solved and whose impact on the number of votes is neither significant nor in favour, nor against.